SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for Red Bull Salzburg had a probability of 35.11% and a draw had a probability of 22.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.75%) and 2-0 (5.22%). The likeliest Red Bull Salzburg win was 1-2 (7.7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.41%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
42.52% ( -0.08) | 22.36% ( 0.02) | 35.11% ( 0.06) |
| Both teams to score 67.43% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.02% ( -0.09) | 32.97% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.3% ( -0.1) | 54.69% ( 0.1) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.73% ( -0.07) | 16.27% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.19% ( -0.12) | 45.81% ( 0.12) |
| Red Bull Salzburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.53% ( -0.01) | 19.47% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.67% ( -0.02) | 51.32% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 2-1 @ 8.55% ( -0) 1-0 @ 5.75% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.22% 3-1 @ 5.17% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.23% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 2.35% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.68% Total : 42.52% | 1-1 @ 9.41% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.99% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.17% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.48% Total : 22.36% | 1-2 @ 7.7% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.18% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.24% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.2% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 3.81% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.31% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.72% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.56% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0)3-4 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 2.5% Total : 35.11% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Manchester CityMan City | 35 | 27 | 4 | 4 | 92 | 31 | 61 | 85 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 36 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 83 | 42 | 41 | 81 |
| 3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 66 |
| 4 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 66 |
| 5 | Liverpool | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 65 |
| 6 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 34 | 17 | 7 | 10 | 66 | 45 | 21 | 58 |
| 7 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 65 | 59 | 6 | 57 |
| 8 | Aston Villa | 36 | 17 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Brentford | 36 | 13 | 14 | 9 | 54 | 45 | 9 | 53 |
| 10 | Fulham | 36 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 51 |
| 11 | Chelsea | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 43 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 11 | 10 | 15 | 37 | 46 | -9 | 43 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 11 | 7 | 18 | 30 | 52 | -22 | 40 |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 36 | 11 | 6 | 19 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 39 |
| 15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 7 | 19 | 38 | 52 | -14 | 37 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 67 | -31 | 34 |
| 17 | Everton | 36 | 7 | 11 | 18 | 32 | 56 | -24 | 32 |
| 18 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 36 | 7 | 10 | 19 | 46 | 71 | -25 | 31 |
| 19 | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 49 | 67 | -18 | 30 |
| R | Southampton | 36 | 6 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 66 | -35 | 24 |
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