SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 59.75%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Freiburg had a probability of 18.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.82%) and 2-0 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.02%), while for a Freiburg win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
59.75% ( 1.66) | 21.36% ( -0.51) | 18.88% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 55.2% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.84% ( 0.6) | 42.16% ( -0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.43% ( 0.6) | 64.56% ( -0.61) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.27% ( 0.71) | 13.73% ( -0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.01% ( 1.4) | 40.99% ( -1.41) |
| Freiburg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.99% ( -0.85) | 36.01% ( 0.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.21% ( -0.88) | 72.79% ( 0.87) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | Freiburg |
| 2-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.82% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.18)3-0 @ 6.45% ( 0.32)3-2 @ 3.37% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 3.27% ( 0.17)4-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.24)4-2 @ 1.67% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.1)5-0 @ 1.27% ( 0.12)Other @ 3.12% Total : 59.75% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.25) 2-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.11)0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.15% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.35% | 1-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.25) 0-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.26)0-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.2)1-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.66% Total : 18.88% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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