SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a RB Leipzig win with a probability of 66.74%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for VfL Bochum had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a RB Leipzig win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.36%) and 1-0 (7.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.22%), while for a VfL Bochum win it was 1-2 (4.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that RB Leipzig would win this match.
| Result | ||
| RB Leipzig | Draw | VfL Bochum |
66.74% ( 0.84) | 18.18% ( -0.33) | 15.07% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 58.31% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.79% ( 0.55) | 34.21% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.89% ( 0.62) | 56.1% ( -0.62) |
| RB Leipzig Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.5% ( 0.35) | 9.5% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 68.14% ( 0.82) | 31.86% ( -0.81) |
| VfL Bochum Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.43% ( -0.28) | 35.57% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.66% ( -0.29) | 72.34% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| RB Leipzig | Draw | VfL Bochum |
| 2-1 @ 9.68% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 9.36% ( 0.03)1-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.1)3-1 @ 7.59% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 7.35% ( 0.13)4-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.12)4-0 @ 4.32% ( 0.14)3-2 @ 3.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 2.1% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.1)5-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.57% Total : 66.75% | 1-1 @ 8.22% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 5% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 3.38% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.23% Total : 18.18% | 1-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.12) 0-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.13)0-2 @ 1.81% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 1.72% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.46% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.34% Total : 15.07% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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