SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 80.13%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 6.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.92%) and 1-0 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.09%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 0-1 (2.2%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
80.13% ( 0.08) | 12.9% ( -0.05) | 6.97% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 47.55% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.37% ( 0.11) | 32.63% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.7% ( 0.13) | 54.3% ( -0.13) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.69% ( 0.04) | 6.32% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 76.24% ( 0.11) | 23.76% ( -0.1) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.75% ( 0) | 49.25% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 15.87% | 84.13% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-0 @ 11.86% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0)4-0 @ 7.54% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 5.34% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 4.17% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.95% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.74% ( 0)6-0 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.64% Total : 80.12% | 1-1 @ 6.09% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 3.11% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 2.98% ( -0)Other @ 0.73% Total : 12.9% | 0-1 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 6.97% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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