SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Werder Bremen win with a probability of 54.2%. A win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 23.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Werder Bremen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Mainz 05 win was 1-2 (6.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.22%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
54.2% ( -0.33) | 22.24% ( 0.14) | 23.56% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 59.31% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.94% ( -0.44) | 40.06% ( 0.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.57% ( -0.46) | 62.43% ( 0.46) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.22% ( -0.26) | 14.78% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 56.97% ( -0.5) | 43.03% ( 0.5) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.6% ( -0.07) | 30.4% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 33.4% ( -0.09) | 66.6% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Werder Bremen | Draw | Mainz 05 |
| 2-1 @ 9.78% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 6.23% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 3.71% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 2.98% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 2.5% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.09% Total : 54.2% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 5.82% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 4.49% ( 0.09)3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.23% Total : 22.24% | 1-2 @ 6.09% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.35% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.42% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.31% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.26% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.94% Total : 23.56% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
| 2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
| 3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
| 4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
| 5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
| 6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
| 7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
| 8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
| 9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
| 10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
| 11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
| 12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
| 13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
| 15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
| 16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
| R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
| R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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