Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 42.14%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 1-2 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mainz 05 would win this match.
