SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 59.91%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 17.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.71%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.88%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (6.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | America Mineiro |
59.91% ( 0.08) | 23.02% ( 0.09) | 17.07% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 46.57% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.05% ( -0.6) | 51.95% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.31% ( -0.52) | 73.69% ( 0.53) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.01% ( -0.18) | 16.99% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.89% ( -0.33) | 47.11% ( 0.33) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.11% ( -0.57) | 43.89% ( 0.57) |
