SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 16 | Coritiba | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 17 | America Mineiro | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 18 | Cuiaba | 14 | -7 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Flamengo | 14 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 14 | -3 | 18 |
| 12 | Avai | 14 | -4 | 18 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 31.39% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.76%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (9.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.57%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Botafogo |
42.17% ( 0.17) | 26.44% ( 0.01) | 31.39% ( -0.18) |
| Both teams to score 51.69% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.06% ( -0.1) | 52.93% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.46% ( -0.09) | 74.54% ( 0.09) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.16% ( 0.04) | 24.84% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.57% ( 0.06) | 59.43% ( -0.05) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.77% ( -0.17) | 31.22% ( 0.18) |
