SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | Fluminense | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 9 | America Mineiro | 10 | -1 | 14 |
| 10 | Santos | 10 | 4 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 14 | Flamengo | 10 | 0 | 12 |
| 15 | Botafogo | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 16 | Avai | 10 | -4 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 42.46%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 28.96% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.41%) and 2-1 (8.22%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Botafogo |
42.46% ( -1.48) | 28.58% ( 1.04) | 28.96% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 44.49% ( -2.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.44% ( -3.37) | 61.56% ( 3.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.58% ( -2.57) | 81.41% ( 2.58) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( -2.38) | 28.7% ( 2.38) |
