SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 39.25%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.96%) and 2-0 (7.54%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 0-1 (11.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bahia | Draw | Botafogo |
39.25% ( 0.44) | 28.63% ( -0.22) | 32.12% ( -0.22) |
| Both teams to score 45.5% ( 0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.13% ( 0.71) | 60.86% ( -0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.1% ( 0.53) | 80.89% ( -0.53) |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.81% ( 0.62) | 30.18% ( -0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 33.66% ( 0.73) | 66.34% ( -0.74) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.17% ( 0.22) | 34.83% ( -0.23) |
