SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 40.7%. A win for Botafogo had a probability of 31.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Botafogo win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Botafogo | Draw | Sao Paulo |
31.55% ( 2.29) | 27.75% ( -0.64) | 40.7% ( -1.64) |
| Both teams to score 47.82% ( 2.69) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.11% ( 2.95) | 57.89% ( -2.95) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.4% ( 2.27) | 78.6% ( -2.27) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.33% ( 3.3) | 33.67% ( -3.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.68% ( 3.43) | 70.32% ( -3.43) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.09% ( 0.51) | 27.9% ( -0.5) |
