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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York City FC | 13 | 16 | 26 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 14 | -7 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 76.32%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 9.02%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.83%) and 2-1 (8.97%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.85%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 1-2 (2.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | Chicago Fire |
76.32% ( -0.06) | 14.65% ( 0.04) | 9.02% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.99% ( -0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.41% ( -0.17) | 33.58% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.6% ( -0.19) | 55.39% ( 0.18) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.73% ( -0.06) | 7.26% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 73.68% ( -0.13) | 26.31% ( 0.12) |
| Chicago Fire Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.98% ( -0.1) | 45.01% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 19.05% ( -0.08) | 80.94% ( 0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | Chicago Fire |
| 2-0 @ 11.24% ( 0.04) 3-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.97% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 7.84% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 6.44% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 3.38% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 2.7% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.48% ( -0.01)6-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.3% Total : 76.32% | 1-1 @ 6.85% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 3.58% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.27% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.95% Total : 14.65% | 1-2 @ 2.73% ( 0) 0-1 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 1.04% ( 0)2-3 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 1.68% Total : 9.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 34 | 20 | 8 | 6 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 68 |
| 2 | Orlando City | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 61 |
| 3 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 34 | 16 | 10 | 8 | 57 | 39 | 18 | 58 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 34 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 66 | 46 | 20 | 55 |
| 5 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 65 | 51 | 14 | 53 |
| 6 | New England RevolutionNew England | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 52 |
| 7 | Nashville SCNashville | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 50 |
| 8 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 34 | 10 | 13 | 11 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 43 |
| 9 | CF MontrealMontreal | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 42 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 41 |
| 11 | Chicago Fire | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 41 |
| 12 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 40 |
| 13 | New York City FCNY City | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 39 |
| 14 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 34 |
| 15 | Toronto | 34 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 26 | 57 | -31 | 23 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 43 | 19 | 56 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 38 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 50 |
| 4 | Houston DynamoHouston | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 48 |
| 5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 47 |
| 7 | Dallas | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 37 | 36 | 1 | 43 |
| 8 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 43 |
| 9 | Portland TimbersPortland | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 43 |
| 10 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
| 11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 41 |
| 12 | Austin FCAustin | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 38 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 33 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 50 | 63 | -13 | 36 |
| 14 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 33 | 5 | 12 | 16 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 27 |
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