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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Toronto | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | -9 | 13 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York City FC | 13 | 16 | 26 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 14 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 14 | 7 | 23 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 46%. A win for DC United had a probability of 30.47% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.9%) and 0-2 (6.79%). The likeliest DC United win was 2-1 (7.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.74%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| DC United | Draw | New York City FC |
30.47% ( 2.54) | 23.53% ( 0.31) | 46% ( -2.84) |
| Both teams to score 61.04% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.47% ( 0.12) | 40.53% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.09% ( 0.12) | 62.91% ( -0.12) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.36% ( 1.74) | 25.64% ( -1.74) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 39.46% ( 2.31) | 60.54% ( -2.31) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.09% ( -1.05) | 17.9% ( 1.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 51.3% ( -1.83) | 48.7% ( 1.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| DC United | Draw | New York City FC |
| 2-1 @ 7.31% ( 0.42) 1-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.27)2-0 @ 4.25% ( 0.38)3-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.34)3-2 @ 2.85% ( 0.2)3-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.26)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.17)4-2 @ 0.97% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.46% Total : 30.47% | 1-1 @ 10.74% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 6.29% ( 0.15)0-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.64% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.26% Total : 23.52% | 1-2 @ 9.24% ( -0.23) 0-1 @ 7.9% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 6.79% ( -0.52)1-3 @ 5.3% ( -0.32)0-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.45)2-3 @ 3.61% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 2.28% ( -0.22)0-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.26)2-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.76% Total : 46% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 33 | 20 | 8 | 5 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 68 |
| 2 | Orlando City | 33 | 17 | 9 | 7 | 53 | 39 | 14 | 60 |
| 3 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 56 | 39 | 17 | 55 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | 65 | 45 | 20 | 54 |
| 5 | New England RevolutionNew England | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 54 | 42 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 51 | 13 | 50 |
| 7 | Nashville SCNashville | 32 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 46 |
| 8 | CF MontrealMontreal | 33 | 12 | 5 | 16 | 35 | 50 | -15 | 41 |
| 9 | DC United | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 49 | -4 | 40 |
| 10 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 40 |
| 11 | Chicago Fire | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 40 |
| 12 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 32 | 9 | 12 | 11 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 39 |
| 13 | New York City FCNY City | 33 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 38 |
| 14 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 32 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 33 |
| 15 | Toronto | 33 | 4 | 10 | 19 | 26 | 57 | -31 | 22 |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | St Louis City | 33 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 62 | 43 | 19 | 56 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 53 | 38 | 15 | 51 |
| 3 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 39 | 32 | 7 | 50 |
| 4 | Houston DynamoHouston | 33 | 13 | 9 | 11 | 48 | 37 | 11 | 48 |
| 5 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 47 | 7 | 47 |
| 6 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 32 | 13 | 7 | 12 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 46 |
| 7 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 43 |
| 8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 55 | -10 | 43 |
| 9 | Dallas | 32 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 42 |
| 10 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 48 | -3 | 41 |
| 11 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 41 |
| 12 | Austin FCAustin | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 38 |
| 13 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 48 | 61 | -13 | 35 |
| 14 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 26 |
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