SM
The 2023 MLS season is now up and running, and you can watch every game live with the MLS season pass on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe.
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | New England Revolution | 13 | -1 | 16 |
| 7 | Toronto | 14 | -6 | 15 |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 8 | DC United | 13 | -7 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting Kansas City | 15 | -9 | 13 |
| 10 | Chicago Fire | 14 | -7 | 11 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 46.48%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 0-1 (7.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toronto | Draw | Chicago Fire |
46.48% ( -0.11) | 25% ( 0) | 28.52% ( 0.11) |
| Both teams to score 54.73% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.73% ( 0.07) | 48.27% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.58% ( 0.06) | 70.42% ( -0.06) |
| Toronto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.19% ( -0.02) | 20.81% ( 0.02) |
