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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 45.45%. A win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 30.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.08%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest Chicago Fire win was 2-1 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chicago Fire | Draw | New York City FC |
| 30.79% | 23.76% | 45.45% |
| Both teams to score 60.4% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
