SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ivory Coast win with a probability of 70.97%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for Gambia had a probability of 10.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ivory Coast win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.11%) and 3-0 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for a Gambia win it was 0-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ivory Coast would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ivory Coast | Draw | Gambia |
70.97% ( -0.31) | 18.92% ( 0.18) | 10.12% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 40.44% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.11% ( -0.4) | 49.89% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.12% ( -0.36) | 71.88% ( 0.36) |
| Ivory Coast Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.19% ( -0.21) | 12.81% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.87% ( -0.44) | 39.13% ( 0.43) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.39% ( 0.01) | 53.62% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.96% ( 0) | 87.04% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ivory Coast | Draw | Gambia |
| 2-0 @ 14.5% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 14.11% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 9.93% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 5.1% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 2.1% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.58% Total : 70.97% | 1-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 6.87% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 2.82% ( 0)Other @ 0.44% Total : 18.92% | 0-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 2.74% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.33% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.76% Total : 10.12% |
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