SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Gambia | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for Gambia had a probability of 36.19% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.52%). The likeliest Gambia win was 1-0 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Gambia | Draw | Madagascar |
36.19% ( 0.9) | 27.49% ( 0.15) | 36.31% ( -1.06) |
| Both teams to score 49.36% ( -0.44) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.68% ( -0.57) | 56.32% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.65% ( -0.46) | 77.35% ( 0.46) |
| Gambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.22% ( 0.28) | 29.78% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.14% ( 0.34) | 65.86% ( -0.34) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.29% ( -0.92) | 29.71% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.23% ( -1.13) | 65.76% ( 1.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gambia | Draw | Madagascar |
| 1-0 @ 10.71% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 6.49% ( 0.24)3-1 @ 3.18% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.62% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.41% Total : 36.18% | 1-1 @ 13% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.19)2-2 @ 4.78% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.49% | 0-1 @ 10.73% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.17)0-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.15)0-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.15)2-3 @ 1.93% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.43% Total : 36.31% |
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