SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 42.73%. A draw had a probability of 28.9% and a win for Comoros had a probability of 28.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.6%) and 2-1 (8.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.2%), while for a Comoros win it was 0-1 (10.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Madagascar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Comoros |
42.73% ( -0.23) | 28.94% ( 0.01) | 28.32% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 43.23% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.02% ( 0.06) | 62.98% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.55% ( 0.04) | 82.45% ( -0.04) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.77% ( -0.1) | 29.23% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.81% ( -0.12) | 65.19% ( 0.12) |
| Comoros Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.09% ( 0.22) | 38.91% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 24.36% ( 0.2) | 75.64% ( -0.2) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Comoros |
| 1-0 @ 13.98% ( -0.07) 2-0 @ 8.6% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 8.12% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.33% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.57% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.49% Total : 42.72% | 1-1 @ 13.2% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.37% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.83% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.53% Total : 28.94% | 0-1 @ 10.73% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.07% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 1.6% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.52% Total : 28.32% |
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