Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 37.44%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 34.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.89%) and 0-2 (6.95%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood.
-0.01) 
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