Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 43.61%. A win for La Luz had a probability of 28.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest La Luz win was 0-1 (9.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.04) 
