Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montevideo Wanderers win with a probability of 38.03%. A win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 33.42% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-2 (7.21%). The likeliest Plaza Colonia win was 1-0 (11.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
-0.35) 
0.35) 
