Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SPAL win with a probability of 51.57%. A win for Crotone had a probability of 24.83% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a SPAL win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Crotone win was 0-1 (6.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.
