Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Frosinone win with a probability of 49.08%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 26.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Frosinone win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.52%) and 0-2 (8.3%). The likeliest SPAL win was 1-0 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
