Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 56.01%. A draw has a probability of 22.4% and a win for Chelsea has a probability of 21.61%.
The most likely scoreline was Manchester City 1-1 Chelsea with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines were 2-1 (9.89%), 1-0 (9.66%), 2-0 (9.1%). The actual score line of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.7%.