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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.64%) and 2-0 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 0-1 (6.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
51.83% ( -0.14) | 24.32% ( 0.03) | 23.84% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 52.72% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.06% ( -0.03) | 48.93% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.97% ( -0.03) | 71.02% ( 0.02) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.13% ( -0.07) | 18.86% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 49.67% ( -0.11) | 50.32% ( 0.1) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.98% ( 0.08) | 35.01% ( -0.08) |
