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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | New York Red Bulls | 16 | 7 | 26 |
| 3 | CF Montreal | 16 | 4 | 26 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | New York City FC | 14 | 16 | 27 |
| 2 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 16 | 7 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 39%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 33.74% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.27%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (10.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York City FC |
39% ( 0.08) | 27.27% ( -0.03) | 33.74% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 49.83% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.38% ( 0.12) | 55.62% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.22% ( 0.1) | 76.78% ( -0.1) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.22% ( 0.1) | 27.79% ( -0.1) |
