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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York Red Bulls win with a probability of 49.46%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 23.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York Red Bulls win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.52%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 0-1 (8.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York Red Bulls | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
49.46% ( 2.68) | 26.97% ( -0.71) | 23.58% ( -1.97) |
| Both teams to score 44.87% ( 0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.89% ( 1.08) | 59.1% ( -1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.45% ( 0.82) | 79.55% ( -0.83) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.96% ( 1.76) | 24.04% ( -1.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 41.7% ( 2.45) | 58.3% ( -2.45) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.07% ( -1.21) | 40.93% ( 1.21) |
