SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caen win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Troyes had a probability of 29.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caen win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.86%). The likeliest Troyes win was 1-0 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Troyes | Draw | Caen |
29.49% ( 0.32) | 25.7% ( 0.13) | 44.81% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 53.11% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.32% ( -0.4) | 50.68% ( 0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.42% ( -0.36) | 72.58% ( 0.35) |
| Troyes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.58% ( 0.02) | 31.42% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.21% ( 0.03) | 67.79% ( -0.03) |
| Caen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.43% ( -0.38) | 22.56% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 43.84% ( -0.57) | 56.16% ( 0.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Troyes | Draw | Caen |
| 1-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 4.75% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.83% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.86% Total : 29.49% | 1-1 @ 12.21% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 5.27% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.69% | 0-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 9.1% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 7.86% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 4.52% ( -0.08)0-3 @ 3.9% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 2.61% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.45% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.17% Total : 44.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Laval | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 33 |
| 2 | Angers | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 31 |
| 3 | Auxerre | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 18 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | Grenoble | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 28 |
| 5 | PauPau | 16 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 26 |
| 6 | GuingampGuingamp | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Ajaccio | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 24 |
| 8 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 24 |
| 9 | Rodez AFRodez AF | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 23 |
| 10 | AmiensAmiens | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 23 |
| 11 | Paris FCParis FC | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 20 | -2 | 20 |
| 12 | Caen | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 19 |
| 13 | Annecy | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 19 |
| 14 | Concarneau | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 19 |
| 15 | Bordeaux | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 22 | -6 | 18 |
| 16 | Bastia | 16 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 20 | -6 | 17 |
| 17 | Troyes | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
| 18 | DunkerqueDunkerque | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 13 |
| 19 | Quevilly | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 12 |
| 20 | Valenciennes | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 11 |
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