SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 54.79%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 23.21% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.42%) and 2-0 (8.18%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-2 (6.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
54.79% ( 0.96) | 21.99% ( -0.11) | 23.21% ( -0.85) |
| Both teams to score 59.76% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.73% ( -0.42) | 39.26% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.4% ( -0.44) | 61.6% ( 0.44) |
| Monaco Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.68% ( 0.16) | 14.31% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.86% ( 0.32) | 42.13% ( -0.32) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.74% ( -0.93) | 30.26% ( 0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.57% ( -1.12) | 66.43% ( 1.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Monaco | Draw | Auxerre |
| 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.42% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 8.18% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 6.34% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.19)3-2 @ 3.79% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 3.08% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.58% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.28% Total : 54.8% | 1-1 @ 10.06% 2-2 @ 5.85% ( -0.12)0-0 @ 4.33% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.24% Total : 21.99% | 1-2 @ 6.02% ( -0.16) 0-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.09% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.96% Total : 23.21% |
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