SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 55.02%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 23.45% and a draw had a probability of 21.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.76%) and 0-1 (7.72%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 2-1 (6.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.65%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
23.45% ( -1.77) | 21.53% ( -0.79) | 55.02% ( 2.55) |
| Both teams to score 61.77% ( 0.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.23% ( 1.88) | 36.77% ( -1.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.07% ( 2.01) | 58.93% ( -2.01) |
| Harrogate Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.33% ( -0.37) | 28.67% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.51% ( -0.46) | 64.49% ( 0.46) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.6% ( 1.46) | 13.4% ( -1.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 59.67% ( 2.85) | 40.33% ( -2.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Harrogate Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.36) 1-0 @ 4.8% ( -0.51)2-0 @ 3% ( -0.35)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.51% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.36% Total : 23.45% | 1-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.46) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 3.84% ( -0.36)3-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.29% Total : 21.53% | 1-2 @ 9.7% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 7.76% ( 0.12)0-1 @ 7.72% ( -0.3)1-3 @ 6.5% ( 0.36)0-3 @ 5.2% ( 0.34)2-3 @ 4.06% ( 0.19)1-4 @ 3.27% ( 0.34)0-4 @ 2.61% ( 0.3)2-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.19)1-5 @ 1.31% ( 0.2)0-5 @ 1.05% ( 0.17)Other @ 3.81% Total : 55.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 26 | 27 | 51 |
| 2 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 25 | 13 | 10 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 49 |
| 3 | Wrexham | 25 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 36 | 16 | 49 |
| 4 | BarrowBarrow | 26 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 38 | 24 | 14 | 48 |
| 5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 26 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 9 | 44 |
| 6 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
| 7 | AFC Wimbledon | 25 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 41 | 28 | 13 | 39 |
| 8 | MK Dons | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 31 | 8 | 39 |
| 9 | Crawley TownCrawley | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 43 | 44 | -1 | 39 |
| 10 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 36 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Gillingham | 25 | 12 | 2 | 11 | 21 | 30 | -9 | 38 |
| 12 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 35 | -3 | 37 |
| 13 | Walsall | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 36 |
| 14 | Bradford CityBradford | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 35 | -2 | 34 |
| 15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 49 | 52 | -3 | 34 |
| 16 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 33 |
| 17 | Morecambe | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 33 |
| 18 | Newport CountyNewport | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 31 |
| 19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 28 |
| 20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
| 21 | Salford City | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 24 |
| 22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 24 |
| 23 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 18 |
| 24 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 28 | 52 | -24 | 18 |
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