Real Valladolid are an incredibly difficult team to back at the moment, and a defeat here would be a crushing blow; it would not be a surprise to see the points shared, but we believe that Las Palmas will be able to navigate their way to a hugely important three points.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 38.74%. A win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 34.72% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.74%). The likeliest Real Valladolid win was 1-0 (9.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood.
-0.83) 
0.17) 
