SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Vissel Kobe | 38 | 26 | 73 |
| 4 | Kashima Antlers | 38 | 26 | 69 |
| 5 | Nagoya Grampus | 38 | 14 | 66 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 7 | Sagan Tosu | 38 | 8 | 59 |
| 8 | Avispa Fukuoka | 38 | 5 | 54 |
| 9 | FC Tokyo | 38 | -4 | 53 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 54.66%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Avispa Fukuoka had a probability of 19.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.43%) and 2-1 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for an Avispa Fukuoka win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kashima Antlers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kashima Antlers | Draw | Avispa Fukuoka |
54.66% ( 0.01) | 25.84% ( -0.01) | 19.5% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 42.98% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
