SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 41.66%. A win for Roma had a probability of 32.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.79%) and 0-2 (7.17%). The likeliest Roma win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | Porto |
32.41% ( 0.38) | 25.94% ( -0.06) | 41.66% ( -0.32) |
| Both teams to score 53.67% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.45% ( 0.36) | 50.55% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.53% ( 0.32) | 72.47% ( -0.32) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.65% ( 0.43) | 29.34% ( -0.43) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.68% ( 0.53) | 65.32% ( -0.53) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.96% | 24.04% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.7% ( 0) | 58.3% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Roma | Draw | Porto |
| 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 7.56% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.09% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.2% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.49% Total : 32.41% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.05% ( -0.1)2-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.93% | 0-1 @ 10.05% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 8.79% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 7.17% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.41% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.49% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.89% Total : 41.65% |
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