Unbeaten in eight Serie A matches - after losing seven of the previous nine - Roma have certainly turned a corner, but they still lack resilience on the road.
Now adapting to the tactics of another new coach, Porto are enduring a tough time themselves, so the Dragons may have to settle for a first-leg draw.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 54.19%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Roma had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a Roma win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
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