SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Udinese | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 5 | Roma | 6 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Inter Milan | 6 | 4 | 12 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | HJK Helsinki | 21 | 15 | 46 |
| 2 | KuPS | 21 | 19 | 44 |
| 3 | Honka | 21 | 25 | 41 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 65.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for HJK Helsinki had a probability of 10.59%.
The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 19.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.06%) and 3-0 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.19%), while for a HJK Helsinki win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Roma would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Roma | Draw | HJK Helsinki |
65.66% ( -0.28) | 23.74% ( 0.1) | 10.59% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 30.64% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.14% ( 0.03) | 64.85% ( -0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.21% ( 0.02) | 83.79% ( -0.02) |
| Roma Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.27% ( -0.09) | 19.73% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.25% ( -0.15) | 51.75% ( 0.15) |
| HJK Helsinki Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 38.17% ( 0.37) | 61.83% ( -0.36) |
