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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 58.82%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 20.95% and a draw had a probability of 20.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.8%) and 0-1 (7.16%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (5.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
20.95% ( 0.06) | 20.22% ( 0.08) | 58.82% ( -0.14) |
| Both teams to score 62.94% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.33% ( -0.34) | 33.67% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.51% ( -0.39) | 55.49% ( 0.39) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.96% ( -0.15) | 29.03% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 35.06% ( -0.18) | 64.94% ( 0.18) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.68% ( -0.14) | 11.31% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 64.03% ( -0.31) | 35.97% ( 0.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 5.47% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 4.06% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 2.51% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 2.26% 3-0 @ 1.04% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.15% Total : 20.95% | 1-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.29% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 1.79% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.34% Total : 20.22% | 1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 7.8% ( 0.05)0-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 7.01% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.67% ( 0)2-3 @ 4.33% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 3.82% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 3.09% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 2.36% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.66% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)2-5 @ 1.03% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.95% Total : 58.82% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 27 | 27 |
| 2 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 21 | 25 |
| 3 | Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 6 | 26 | 23 |
| 4 | FC Twente | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 13 | 22 |
| 5 | Go Ahead Eagles | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 15 |
| 7 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | Heracles | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 12 |
| 9 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 10 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 10 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 17 | -10 | 9 |
| 14 | Almere CityAlmere City | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 9 |
| 15 | Vitesse | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 8 |
| 16 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 | Ajax | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 5 |
| 18 | FC VolendamVolendam | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 |
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