SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Volendam win with a probability of 53%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 24.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Volendam win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.16%) and 2-0 (8.39%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Volendam would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Volendam | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
53% ( 0.46) | 22.88% ( -0.15) | 24.12% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 57.76% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.59% ( 0.38) | 42.41% ( -0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.18% ( 0.38) | 64.82% ( -0.38) |
| FC Volendam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.99% ( 0.3) | 16.01% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.65% ( 0.54) | 45.34% ( -0.54) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.78% ( -0.05) | 31.22% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 32.43% ( -0.06) | 67.57% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Volendam | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.02) 1-0 @ 9.16% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.39% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 5.96% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.47% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 2.35% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0.03)5-1 @ 1% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.47% Total : 53% | 1-1 @ 10.66% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( 0)0-0 @ 5% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.88% | 1-2 @ 6.21% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 3.39% ( -0.07)1-3 @ 2.41% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.21% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.31% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.78% Total : 24.12% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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