SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 29.01% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.54%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Fortuna Sittard win was 1-2 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
47.23% ( 0.01) | 23.76% ( -0.01) | 29.01% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.29% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.56% ( 0.02) | 42.43% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.16% ( 0.02) | 64.84% ( -0.02) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.84% ( 0.01) | 18.16% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 50.86% ( 0.02) | 49.14% ( -0.03) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.44% ( 0.01) | 27.56% ( -0.01) |
