SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 78.77%. A draw had a probability of 12.6% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 8.64%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.4%) and 3-1 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.32%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 1-2 (2.57%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
78.77% ( -0.01) | 12.58% ( 0) | 8.64% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 58.94% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 76.36% ( 0.01) | 23.63% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 56.88% ( 0.01) | 43.11% ( -0.02) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.24% ( -0) | 4.75% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 80.77% | 19.22% ( -0) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.88% ( 0.02) | 38.11% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 25.12% ( 0.02) | 74.87% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Fortuna Sittard |
| 3-0 @ 8.54% ( -0) 2-0 @ 8.4% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 8.23% 2-1 @ 8.11% ( -0)4-0 @ 6.5% ( -0)4-1 @ 6.27% ( 0)1-0 @ 5.51% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.97% ( 0)5-0 @ 3.96% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.82% 4-2 @ 3.03% ( 0)6-0 @ 2.01% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.94% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.84% ( 0)4-3 @ 0.97% ( 0)6-2 @ 0.94% ( 0)Other @ 4.72% Total : 78.77% | 1-1 @ 5.32% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.91% ( 0)0-0 @ 1.81% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 12.58% | 1-2 @ 2.57% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.26% ( 0)Other @ 3.07% Total : 8.64% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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