SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 58.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for Fortuna Sittard had a probability of 19.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.69%) and 0-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.11%), while for a Fortuna Sittard win it was 2-1 (5.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
19.6% ( -0.07) | 21.58% ( -0.05) | 58.81% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 55.71% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.9% ( 0.11) | 42.1% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.49% ( 0.11) | 64.5% ( -0.11) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.78% ( -0.01) | 35.22% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 28.02% ( -0.01) | 71.97% ( 0.02) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86% ( 0.08) | 14% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 58.47% ( 0.15) | 41.52% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 2-1 @ 5.28% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 1.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.81% ( -0)3-0 @ 0.93% ( -0)Other @ 1.92% Total : 19.6% | 1-1 @ 10.11% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.93% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 21.58% | 1-2 @ 9.95% ( 0) 0-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 9.53% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 6.25% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.4% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 3.2% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 3.07% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.67% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 1.26% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.06% Total : 58.81% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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