SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 72.37%. A draw had a probability of 16.6% and a win for Cambuur had a probability of 11.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.43%) and 1-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.81%), while for a Cambuur win it was 1-2 (3.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Cambuur |
72.37% ( -0.1) | 16.61% ( 0.06) | 11.02% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 51.49% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.05% ( -0.16) | 36.95% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.86% ( -0.17) | 59.13% ( 0.17) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.08% ( -0.06) | 8.92% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 69.53% ( -0.15) | 30.47% ( 0.15) |
| Cambuur Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.53% ( -0.04) | 43.47% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 20.31% ( -0.03) | 79.69% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Cambuur |
| 2-0 @ 11.32% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.43% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 9.13% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 2.67% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.22% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.91% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 1.07% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.44% Total : 72.36% | 1-1 @ 7.81% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 3.93% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.03)Other @ 1% Total : 16.61% | 1-2 @ 3.25% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 3.23% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 1.35% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.09% ( -0)1-3 @ 0.9% ( 0)Other @ 1.2% Total : 11.02% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 29 | 21 | 7 | 1 | 70 | 27 | 43 | 70 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 29 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 78 | 35 | 43 | 62 |
| 3 | Ajax | 28 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 76 | 28 | 48 | 59 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 28 | 16 | 6 | 6 | 53 | 32 | 21 | 54 |
| 5 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 29 | 15 | 7 | 7 | 47 | 30 | 17 | 52 |
| 6 | FC Twente | 29 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 51 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 45 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 44 | 46 | -2 | 38 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 29 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 38 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 29 | 7 | 14 | 8 | 38 | 34 | 4 | 35 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 28 | 9 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 51 | -16 | 32 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 37 | 48 | -11 | 30 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 29 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 30 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 34 | 61 | -27 | 27 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 29 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 27 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 28 | 5 | 10 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 25 |
| 17 | Groningen | 29 | 4 | 5 | 20 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 29 | 4 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 58 | -37 | 16 |
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