SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 82.41%. A draw had a probability of 11.3% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 6.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 3-1 (7.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.2%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-2 (1.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen |
82.41% ( -0.02) | 11.33% ( 0.01) | 6.26% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 50.59% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.93% ( -0.01) | 27.08% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.42% ( -0.01) | 47.58% ( 0.01) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.17% ( -0) | 4.83% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 80.54% ( -0.01) | 19.47% ( 0.01) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.16% ( 0.02) | 46.84% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 17.63% ( 0.01) | 82.37% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Groningen |
| 3-0 @ 10.49% 2-0 @ 10.38% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.96% ( 0)4-0 @ 7.95% ( -0)2-1 @ 7.88% ( 0)1-0 @ 6.86% ( 0)4-1 @ 6.03% ( -0)5-0 @ 4.82% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.65% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.02% ( 0)6-0 @ 2.43% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.29% ( 0)6-1 @ 1.85% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.39% 7-0 @ 1.05% ( -0)Other @ 4.37% Total : 82.4% | 1-1 @ 5.2% ( 0) 2-2 @ 2.99% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.26% ( 0)Other @ 0.88% Total : 11.33% | 1-2 @ 1.97% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.72% ( 0)Other @ 2.57% Total : 6.26% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 31 | 23 | 7 | 1 | 75 | 28 | 47 | 76 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 31 | 21 | 5 | 5 | 82 | 35 | 47 | 68 |
| 3 | Ajax | 31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 63 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 31 | 18 | 7 | 6 | 59 | 32 | 27 | 61 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 31 | 15 | 10 | 6 | 54 | 26 | 28 | 55 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 31 | 15 | 8 | 8 | 50 | 34 | 16 | 53 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 48 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 41 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 31 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 41 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 31 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 38 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 37 |
| 12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 31 | 10 | 5 | 16 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 50 | -14 | 31 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 31 | 8 | 6 | 17 | 37 | 65 | -28 | 30 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 31 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 29 | 54 | -25 | 28 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 31 | 8 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 68 | -41 | 28 |
| R | Groningen | 31 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 29 | 61 | -32 | 18 |
| R | Cambuur | 31 | 4 | 4 | 23 | 21 | 63 | -42 | 16 |
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