SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 59.45%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Groningen had a probability of 17.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.01%) and 1-2 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.74%), while for a Groningen win it was 1-0 (5.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Groningen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
17.96% ( -0.01) | 22.59% ( 0) | 59.45% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 49.5% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.1% ( -0) | 48.9% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.01% ( -0) | 70.99% ( 0) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.99% ( -0.01) | 41.01% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 22.44% ( -0.01) | 77.56% ( 0) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.92% ( 0) | 16.08% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 54.53% | 45.47% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Groningen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 5.88% ( -0) 2-1 @ 4.79% ( -0)2-0 @ 2.62% 3-1 @ 1.42% 3-2 @ 1.3% Other @ 1.95% Total : 17.96% | 1-1 @ 10.74% 0-0 @ 6.6% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.38% ( -0)Other @ 0.88% Total : 22.59% | 0-1 @ 12.05% 0-2 @ 11.01% 1-2 @ 9.82% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.71% ( 0)1-3 @ 5.98% 0-4 @ 3.07% 1-4 @ 2.73% 2-3 @ 2.67% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.22% 0-5 @ 1.12% 1-5 @ 1% Other @ 2.08% Total : 59.44% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 24 | 16 | 7 | 1 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
| 2 | Ajax | 24 | 15 | 7 | 2 | 66 | 23 | 43 | 52 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 24 | 15 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 50 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 61 | 28 | 33 | 49 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 36 | 26 | 10 | 40 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 37 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | Heerenveen | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 31 |
| 10 | NECNijmegen | 24 | 6 | 12 | 6 | 30 | 23 | 7 | 30 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 29 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 28 | 42 | -14 | 23 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 28 | 53 | -25 | 23 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 20 |
| 17 | Groningen | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 |
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