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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 74.94%. A draw had a probability of 14.4% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 10.65%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.72%) and 1-3 (8.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 2-1 (3.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
10.65% ( -0.44) | 14.41% ( -0.17) | 74.94% ( 0.61) |
| Both teams to score 59.47% ( -1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.38% ( -0.5) | 26.62% ( 0.51) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.99% ( -0.64) | 47.01% ( 0.65) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.26% ( -1.11) | 36.74% ( 1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 26.47% ( -1.13) | 73.53% ( 1.13) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.01% ( -0) | 5.99% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 77.15% ( -0.01) | 22.85% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 3.11% ( -0.09) 1-0 @ 2.2% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.09)2-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 1.04% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.74% Total : 10.65% | 1-1 @ 6.2% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 2.2% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.27% Total : 14.41% | 1-2 @ 8.73% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.72% ( 0.27)1-3 @ 8.19% ( 0)0-3 @ 8.18% ( 0.25)0-1 @ 6.19% ( 0.19)1-4 @ 5.77% ( 0)0-4 @ 5.76% ( 0.17)2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.12)1-5 @ 3.25% ( -0)0-5 @ 3.24% ( 0.1)2-4 @ 2.89% ( -0.09)2-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.05)1-6 @ 1.52% ( -0)0-6 @ 1.52% ( 0.04)3-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.28% Total : 74.94% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Feyenoord | 25 | 17 | 7 | 1 | 56 | 23 | 33 | 58 |
| 2 | Ajax | 25 | 16 | 7 | 2 | 70 | 25 | 45 | 55 |
| 3 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 25 | 16 | 5 | 4 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 53 |
| 4 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 25 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 66 | 30 | 36 | 52 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 42 | 21 | 21 | 44 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 27 | 12 | 43 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 38 |
| 8 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 39 | 37 | 2 | 32 |
| 9 | NECNijmegen | 25 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 32 | 25 | 7 | 31 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 29 | 36 | -7 | 31 |
| 11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 29 |
| 12 | Go Ahead Eagles | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 26 |
| 13 | Vitesse | 25 | 5 | 8 | 12 | 29 | 45 | -16 | 23 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 55 | -26 | 23 |
| 15 | EmmenEmmen | 25 | 4 | 9 | 12 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 21 |
| 16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 25 | 6 | 2 | 17 | 21 | 60 | -39 | 20 |
| 17 | Groningen | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 50 | -25 | 17 |
| 18 | Cambuur | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 45 | -26 | 16 |
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