SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 36.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.6%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jong Ajax | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
40.67% ( 0.53) | 23.27% ( -0.03) | 36.06% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 64.12% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.63% ( 0.06) | 37.36% ( -0.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.42% ( 0.07) | 59.58% ( -0.07) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.16% ( 0.26) | 18.84% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 49.72% ( 0.44) | 50.28% ( -0.44) |
| ADO Den Haag Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79% ( -0.23) | 21% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 46.23% ( -0.35) | 53.77% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong Ajax | Draw | ADO Den Haag |
| 2-1 @ 8.6% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 6.6% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.51% ( 0.08)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.07% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.53% Total : 40.67% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.94% ( 0)Other @ 0.35% Total : 23.26% | 1-2 @ 8.04% ( -0.07) 0-1 @ 6.17% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 4.82% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 4.18% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.49% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.51% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.36% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.87% Total : 36.06% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Heracles | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 101 | 42 | 59 | 82 |
| P | PEC Zwolle | 37 | 26 | 4 | 7 | 96 | 41 | 55 | 82 |
| 3 | Willem II | 37 | 19 | 10 | 8 | 66 | 38 | 28 | 67 |
| 4 | Almere CityAlmere City | 37 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 57 | 41 | 16 | 67 |
| 5 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 37 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 65 | 64 | 1 | 59 |
| 6 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 37 | 18 | 5 | 14 | 63 | 62 | 1 | 59 |
| 7 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 57 |
| 8 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 37 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 57 |
| 9 | Jong AZJong AZ | 37 | 14 | 9 | 14 | 60 | 56 | 4 | 51 |
| 10 | TelstarTelstar | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 37 | 51 | -14 | 50 |
| 11 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 37 | 14 | 7 | 16 | 61 | 54 | 7 | 49 |
| 12 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 37 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 49 | 57 | -8 | 48 |
| 13 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 69 | 70 | -1 | 46 |
| 14 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 58 | 62 | -4 | 44 |
| 15 | Helmond SportHelmond | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 43 |
| 16 | Roda JC | 37 | 12 | 6 | 19 | 47 | 57 | -10 | 42 |
| 17 | TOP OssOss | 37 | 10 | 6 | 21 | 43 | 74 | -31 | 36 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 37 | 10 | 5 | 22 | 46 | 82 | -36 | 35 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 37 | 9 | 7 | 21 | 39 | 66 | -27 | 34 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 37 | 7 | 6 | 24 | 32 | 64 | -32 | 27 |
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