SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almere City win with a probability of 40.8%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 35.49% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almere City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.16%) and 0-2 (5.81%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 2-1 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almere City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Almere City |
35.49% ( 1.01) | 23.72% ( 0.16) | 40.8% ( -1.16) |
| Both teams to score 62.31% ( -0.35) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.32% ( -0.56) | 39.68% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.97% ( -0.59) | 62.03% ( 0.59) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.65% ( 0.28) | 22.35% ( -0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 44.17% ( 0.41) | 55.83% ( -0.41) |
| Almere City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.24% ( -0.75) | 19.76% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.2% ( -1.23) | 51.8% ( 1.23) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Almere City |
| 2-1 @ 8.04% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 6.62% ( 0.23)2-0 @ 4.96% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 4.02% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 3.26% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.48% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.51% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.47% Total : 35.49% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( 0.11) 2-2 @ 6.52% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.12)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.71% | 1-2 @ 8.7% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 7.16% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 4.7% ( -0.17)2-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 1.91% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.43% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.27% ( -0.09)Other @ 3.16% Total : 40.8% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | Heracles | 36 | 25 | 4 | 7 | 98 | 42 | 56 | 79 |
| P | PEC Zwolle | 35 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 92 | 37 | 55 | 79 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 55 | 39 | 16 | 66 |
| 4 | Willem II | 36 | 18 | 10 | 8 | 63 | 38 | 25 | 64 |
| 5 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 36 | 18 | 5 | 13 | 63 | 59 | 4 | 59 |
| 6 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 57 | 52 | 5 | 57 |
| 7 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 36 | 17 | 5 | 14 | 63 | 63 | 0 | 56 |
| 8 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 53 | 49 | 4 | 54 |
| 9 | TelstarTelstar | 36 | 13 | 11 | 12 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 50 |
| 10 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 36 | 14 | 7 | 15 | 60 | 52 | 8 | 49 |
| 11 | Jong AZJong AZ | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 47 |
| 12 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
| 13 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 64 | 66 | -2 | 43 |
| 14 | Roda JC | 36 | 12 | 6 | 18 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 42 |
| 15 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 55 | 60 | -5 | 41 |
| 16 | Helmond SportHelmond | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 40 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 36 | 9 | 6 | 21 | 37 | 64 | -27 | 33 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 35 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 33 |
| 19 | TOP OssOss | 35 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 41 | 73 | -32 | 32 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 35 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 32 | 61 | -29 | 26 |
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