SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 69.6%. A draw had a probability of 18% and a win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 12.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10%) and 2-1 (9.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.48%), while for a Jong Ajax win it was 0-1 (3.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | Jong Ajax |
69.6% ( 0.02) | 17.96% ( -0) | 12.44% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 51.32% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.44% ( -0.01) | 39.57% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.09% ( -0.01) | 61.91% ( 0.01) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.75% ( 0) | 10.26% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 66.39% ( 0) | 33.61% |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.19% ( -0.02) | 42.81% ( 0.02) |
