SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 50.47%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 26.83% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.94%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.
| Result | ||
| De Graafschap | Draw | Jong Ajax |
50.47% ( 0.03) | 22.7% ( 0.01) | 26.83% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 61.26% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.94% ( -0.05) | 39.06% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.62% ( -0.06) | 61.38% ( 0.06) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.32% ( -0.01) | 15.68% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 55.26% ( -0.02) | 44.74% ( 0.02) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.66% ( -0.05) | 27.34% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 37.21% ( -0.07) | 62.79% ( 0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| De Graafschap | Draw | Jong Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 9.54% ( 0) 1-0 @ 7.94% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.36% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.89% 3-0 @ 4.54% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.73% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.1% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.77% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 3.75% Total : 50.47% | 1-1 @ 10.3% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.19% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.29% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0)Other @ 0.27% Total : 22.7% | 1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.56% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.61% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.89% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.68% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.56% ( -0)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.93% Total : 26.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | PEC Zwolle | 25 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 60 | 27 | 33 | 57 |
| 2 | Heracles | 25 | 16 | 3 | 6 | 66 | 32 | 34 | 51 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 43 |
| 4 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 39 | 36 | 3 | 42 |
| 5 | Willem II | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 40 | 27 | 13 | 40 |
| 6 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 25 | 11 | 6 | 8 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 39 |
| 7 | Jong AZJong AZ | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 43 | 39 | 4 | 38 |
| 8 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 38 |
| 9 | TelstarTelstar | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 26 | 30 | -4 | 36 |
| 10 | Roda JC | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 34 | 0 | 34 |
| 11 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 34 |
| 12 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 35 | -4 | 34 |
| 13 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 40 | -1 | 31 |
| 14 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 36 | 38 | -2 | 30 |
| 15 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 28 |
| 16 | Dordrecht | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 26 |
| 17 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 37 | 52 | -15 | 26 |
| 18 | Helmond SportHelmond | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 26 |
| 19 | TOP OssOss | 25 | 7 | 3 | 15 | 28 | 45 | -17 | 24 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 26 | 43 | -17 | 20 |
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