SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 37.93%. A win for Willem II had a probability of 36.83% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.42%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Willem II win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| De Graafschap | Draw | Willem II |
37.93% ( 0.03) | 25.24% ( 0.03) | 36.83% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 56.9% ( -0.11) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.24% ( -0.14) | 46.76% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.98% ( -0.13) | 69.02% ( 0.13) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.73% ( -0.05) | 24.27% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 41.36% ( -0.07) | 58.63% ( 0.07) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.13% ( -0.1) | 24.86% ( 0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 40.53% ( -0.14) | 59.47% ( 0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| De Graafschap | Draw | Willem II |
| 1-0 @ 8.54% ( 0.04) 2-1 @ 8.42% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.05% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.97% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.86% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.41% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.01% ( 0)4-2 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.92% Total : 37.93% | 1-1 @ 11.89% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.03% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.86% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.24% | 0-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 8.28% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 5.84% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.72% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 36.83% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| P | PEC Zwolle | 35 | 25 | 4 | 6 | 92 | 37 | 55 | 79 |
| P | Heracles | 35 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 95 | 41 | 54 | 76 |
| 3 | Almere CityAlmere City | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 66 |
| 4 | Willem II | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 60 | 36 | 24 | 60 |
| 5 | NAC BredaNAC Breda | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 59 | 2 | 56 |
| 6 | MVV MaastrichtMVV | 35 | 17 | 5 | 13 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 56 |
| 7 | FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven | 35 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 55 | 51 | 4 | 54 |
| 8 | VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo | 35 | 15 | 8 | 12 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 53 |
| 9 | TelstarTelstar | 35 | 13 | 10 | 12 | 36 | 49 | -13 | 49 |
| 10 | Jong AZJong AZ | 35 | 13 | 8 | 14 | 57 | 54 | 3 | 47 |
| 11 | ADO Den HaagADO Den Haag | 35 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
| 12 | De GraafschapDe Graafschap | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 56 | 48 | 8 | 46 |
| 13 | Jong AjaxJong Ajax | 35 | 11 | 10 | 14 | 64 | 66 | -2 | 43 |
| 14 | Roda JC | 35 | 12 | 6 | 17 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 42 |
| 15 | Jong PSVJong PSV | 35 | 11 | 8 | 16 | 55 | 60 | -5 | 41 |
| 16 | Helmond SportHelmond | 35 | 10 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 53 | -18 | 39 |
| 17 | Dordrecht | 35 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 33 |
| 18 | Den BoschDen Bosch | 35 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 33 |
| 19 | TOP OssOss | 35 | 9 | 5 | 21 | 41 | 73 | -32 | 32 |
| 20 | Jong FC UtrechtJong Utrecht | 35 | 7 | 5 | 23 | 32 | 61 | -29 | 26 |
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