SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Flamengo | 21 | 13 | 36 |
| 6 | Internacional | 21 | 7 | 33 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Fluminense | 21 | 10 | 38 |
| 4 | Athletico Paranaense | 21 | 6 | 37 |
| 5 | Flamengo | 21 | 13 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 73.79%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Athletico Paranaense had a probability of 9.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.61%) and 3-0 (10.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.07%), while for an Athletico Paranaense win it was 0-1 (3.61%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Flamengo would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Flamengo | Draw | Athletico Paranaense |
73.79% ( -0.21) | 17.1% ( 0.23) | 9.11% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 42.2% ( -0.81) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.8% ( -1.07) | 45.19% ( 1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.46% ( -1.03) | 67.54% ( 1.04) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.29% ( -0.34) | 10.7% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 65.38% ( -0.77) | 34.62% ( 0.77) |
| Athletico Paranaense Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.26% ( -0.72) | 52.74% ( 0.73) |
